A small research note

Pax Silica's First Test Case

What the Philippines hub actually buys

§1 · Positioning

Where it sits, and what that's worth

The regional competitive set

Export figures use each country's own trade classification, not a harmonized HS-code series, so treat the ranking as directional. Wages are general manufacturing averages except where marked electronics-specific. * Indonesia's export figure uses a narrower trade category than the other four rows.

One more dimension of that competition: workforce targets (light bar) versus disclosed progress (dark overlay); * marks no disclosed progress. The Philippines has the largest headline target of the four and, per the OECD's own assessment, no public timeline or work plan to hit it. Hover any bar for sourcing.

What the ATP tier actually pays

Gross margin by supply-chain stage, most recent fiscal year reported. Hover any bar for the exact source. The Philippines' current position, highlighted, is the OSAT/ATP tier: Amkor (Muntinlupa, Laguna), Texas Instruments (Baguio, Clark), plus Cirtek and Integrated Micro-Electronics.

§2 · Exports

The stake is real, even if the margin isn't

Semiconductors (FOB) Total electronics (FOB)

Philippine exports, 2015-2025, USD billions. Semiconductors alone: 39.8% of total Philippine exports in 2024, 40.9% in 2025. That's not the ~70% figure that circulates, which is actually semiconductors' share of electronics exports specifically (69.7% in 2025), a different denominator than total exports. Hover any point for the year's full breakdown.

§3 · The deal

What's actually on the table

Pax Silica coalition accessions, December 2025-June 2026, 24 members total. Hover any dot for the member and date.

The other asset

§4

Findings

For Finding 1. Every individual Pax Silica accession statement, January-June 2026, scored on how specific its "what this country brings" language is. Hover a code for the exact language. Full quotes and sources in the table below and in Section 6.

For Finding 1. Compiled from every individual Pax Silica accession statement published by the State Department, January-June 2026. See Section 6 for the full source list. Scroll within the table to see all 17 rows.

For Finding 3. Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand's paths out of pure assembly-test-packaging, benchmarked against the Philippines. See Section 6 for sourcing.

§5 · Recommendations

What we'd recommend

§6

Data and sources

Sources